国际货币基金组织日前(IMF)称,当前新西兰经济已经准备好经受增速放缓的压力,新西兰联储货币政策的宽松立场是合适的,但纽元当前仍有些高估。新西兰短期的经济前景正面临挑战性,因此,提升储蓄率对经济长期前景有重要意义。 新西兰联储主席惠勒(GraemeWheeler)在10月底的利率决议中指出,9月份以来纽元汇率走强,使通胀在难以在明年中期达到2%的目标。如果这种情况持续,纽联储可能进一步实施进一步宽松的政策。 纽元兑美元10月份曾上涨5.7%,10月15日触及高点0.6897后回撤。受全球乳品交易(GDT)价格和新西兰就业数据打压,纽元在11月初开始大幅走软,上周纽元/美元最低跌至0.6495。 西太平洋银行(Westpac)市场策略师ImreSpeizer预计,纽元兑美元三个月内或跌至0.6200水平。 法国巴黎银行则在报告中指出,纽元/美元的公允价格在0.6280,现价大幅高估,建议投资者做空,目标价位为0.6275。 |
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